{"id":142675,"date":"2019-05-05T12:34:26","date_gmt":"2019-05-05T04:34:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lrxjmw.cn\/?p=142675"},"modified":"2019-04-16T12:36:07","modified_gmt":"2019-04-16T04:36:07","slug":"predict-multiple-futures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lrxjmw.cn\/predict-multiple-futures.html","title":{"rendered":"\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u660e\u4e86\u4e00\u53f0\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u2014\u80fd\u591f\u201c\u9884\u6d4b\u591a\u4e2a\u672a\u6765\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u7a7f\u68ad\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u56de\u5230\u672a\u6765\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7J\u00b7\u798f\u514b\u65af\uff08Michael J\u3002 Fox\uff09\u9970\u6f14\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u540d\u53eb\u9ea6\u514b\u5f17\u83b1\u3002\u5bf9\u4ed6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u88c5\u7f6e\u53ef\u6bd4\u7247\u4e2d\u7684 Delorean \u8dd1\u8f66\uff08\u5373\u65f6\u5149\u7a7f\u68ad\u673a\uff09\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\u4e86\u3002
\n
\n\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u7a7f\u68ad\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u56de\u5230\u672a\u6765\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7J\u00b7\u798f\u514b\u65af\uff08Michael J\u3002 Fox\uff09\u9970\u6f14\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u540d\u53eb\u9ea6\u514b\u5f17\u83b1\u3002\u5bf9\u4ed6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u53d1\u660e\u7684\u88c5\u7f6e\u53ef\u6bd4\u7247\u4e2d\u7684 Delorean \u8dd1\u8f66\uff08\u5373\u65f6\u5149\u7a7f\u68ad\u673a\uff09\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\u4e86\u3002
\n
\n\u4e0d\u540c\u4e8e\u7ecf\u5178\u7c92\u5b50\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u7c92\u5b50\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u4e3a\u201c\u91cf\u5b50\u53e0\u52a0\u6001\u201d\u3001\u540c\u65f6\u671d\u591a\u4e2a\u65b9\u5411\u79fb\u52a8\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6 Mile Gu \u548c\u683c\u91cc\u83f2\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u5458\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e00\u73b0\u8c61\uff0c\u6253\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u53f0\u80fd\u591f\u751f\u6210\u7531\u591a\u79cd\u672a\u6765\u6784\u6210\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\u6001\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65b0\u6d6a\u79d1\u6280\u8baf\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u65f6\u95f4 4 \u6708 15 \u65e5\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u636e\u56fd\u5916\u5a92\u4f53\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u6253\u9020\u4e86\u4e00\u53f0\u5982\u540c\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u56de\u5230\u672a\u6765\u300b\u98ce\u683c\u7684\u88c5\u7f6e\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u9884\u6d4b\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u73b0\u5b9e\u548c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u3002\u8fd9\u53f0\u673a\u5668\u5176\u5b9e\u662f\u4e00\u53f0\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\uff0c\u80fd\u591f\u540c\u65f6\u751f\u6210\u591a\u4e2a\u201c\u672a\u6765\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6c34\u6676\u7403\u5360\u535c\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u4e0d\u8fc7\uff0c\u8981\u60f3\u9884\u6d4b\u672a\u6765\u7684\u5f69\u7968\u4e2d\u5956\u5f97\u4e3b\uff0c\u8fd9\u53f0\u673a\u5668\u76ee\u524d\u8fd8\u505a\u4e0d\u5230\u3002<\/p>\n
\u8be5\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u5728\u4e9a\u539f\u5b50\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8fd0\u884c\uff0c\u6700\u591a\u80fd\u540c\u65f6\u6a21\u62df 16 \u6761\u5149\u5b50\u4f4d\u7f6e\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n
\u5728\u65f6\u95f4\u7a7f\u68ad\u7535\u5f71\u300a\u56de\u5230\u672a\u6765\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u8fc8\u514b\u5c14\u00b7J\u00b7\u798f\u514b\u65af\uff08Michael J. Fox\uff09\u9970\u6f14\u7684\u89d2\u8272\u540d\u53eb\u9ea6\u514b\u5f17\u83b1\u3002\u5bf9\u4ed6\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u672a\u6765\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u52a8\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u7531\u5404\u79cd\u5404\u6837\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7ec4\u6210\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u6761\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u4e0a\uff0c\u9ea6\u514b\u5f17\u83b1\u7684\u7236\u6bcd\u624d\u4f1a\u5760\u5165\u7231\u6cb3\u3001\u8ba9\u4ed6\u964d\u4e34\u4eba\u4e16\u3002\u800c\u5728\u5176\u5b83\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n
\u6fc0\u52a8\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u6700\u65b0\u7a81\u7834\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u5947\u5f02\u7279\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n
\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\u5357\u6d0b\u7406\u5de5\u5927\u5b66\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6 Mile Gu \u6307\u51fa\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u5728\u8bbe\u60f3\u672a\u6765\u65f6\uff0c\u4f1a\u60f3\u8c61\u51fa\u65e0\u6570\u79cd\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u968f\u7740\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u4e0d\u65ad\u5411\u672a\u6765\u5ef6\u4f38\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u7684\u6570\u91cf\u4e5f\u4f1a\u5448\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u589e\u957f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u6bcf\u5206\u949f\u90fd\u8981\u4ece\u4e24\u4e2a\u9009\u9879\u4e2d\u9009\u62e9\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c\u4e0d\u5230\u534a\u5c0f\u65f6\u540e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u672a\u6765\u5c31\u4f1a\u591a\u8fbe 1400 \u4e07\u4e2a\u3002\u800c\u8981\u4e0d\u4e86\u4e00\u5929\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6570\u5b57\u5c31\u4f1a\u8d85\u8fc7\u5b87\u5b99\u4e2d\u7684\u91cf\u5b50\u603b\u6570\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
\u4ed6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u5728\u4e00\u4e2a\u5c0f\u5f97\u591a\u7684\u5c3a\u5ea6\u4e0a\u8fd0\u4f5c\uff0c\u91cf\u5b50\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u4fbf\u53ef\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4e00\u6b21\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u8fdb\u884c\u9010\u4e00\u5206\u6790\u3002\u8fd9\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u8fc7\u91cf\u5b50\u201c\u53e0\u52a0\u6001\u201d\u6765\u5b9e\u73b0\uff0c\u5373\u540c\u65f6\u5904\u4e8e\u591a\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002\u53ea\u6709\u5f53\u8fd9\u4e00\u7cfb\u7edf\u88ab\u4eba\u89c2\u5bdf\u5230\u3001\u6216\u88ab\u5e72\u6270\u65f6\uff0c\u5b83\u624d\u4f1a\u201c\u574d\u7f29\u201d\u6210\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u3002
\n
\n\u53ea\u6709\u5728\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u6761\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u4e0a\uff0c\u9ea6\u514b\u5f17\u83b1\u7684\u7236\u6bcd\u624d\u4f1a\u5760\u5165\u7231\u6cb3\u3001\u8ba9\u4ed6\u964d\u4e34\u4eba\u4e16\u3002\u800c\u5728\u5176\u5b83\u65f6\u95f4\u7ebf\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u6fc0\u52a8\u7684\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u9879\u6700\u65b0\u7a81\u7834\u4ee5\u4e00\u79cd\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u8bc1\u660e\u4e86\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u7684\u5947\u5f02\u7279\u6027\u3002
\n
\n\u56fe\u4e3a\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u91c7\u7528\u7684\u5b9e\u9a8c\u88c5\u5907\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u591a\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u672a\u6765\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\u6001\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u7531\u7cfb\u7edf\u574d\u7f29\u65f6\u3001\u5176\u4e2d\u5404\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u51b3\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8457\u540d\u7684\u601d\u60f3\u5b9e\u9a8c\u201c\u859b\u5b9a\u8c14\u7684\u732b\u201d\u5c31\u662f\u5bf9\u8fd9\u4e00\u91cf\u5b50\u529b\u5b66\u652f\u67f1\u7406\u8bba\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u8bf4\u660e\uff1a\u732b\u65e2\u4e0d\u662f\u6b7b\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u6d3b\u7684\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5904\u4e8e\u4e24\u79cd\u72b6\u6001\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\u6001\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e00\u7406\u8bba\u8fd8\u4fc3\u6210\u4e86\u201c\u591a\u91cd\u4e16\u754c\u201d\u5047\u8bf4\u7684\u63d0\u51fa\uff1a\u4e5f\u8bb8\u5b58\u5728\u65e0\u6570\u4e2a\u5e73\u884c\u5b87\u5b99\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e2a\u4eba\u90fd\u5728\u7ecf\u5386\u53e6\u4e00\u79cd\u547d\u8fd0\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u5728\u6b64\u6b21\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u51b3\u7b56\u8fc7\u7a0b\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u679c\u7531\u5149\u5b50\u7684\u4f4d\u7f6e\u8868\u793a\u3002\u79d1\u5b66\u5bb6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u7531\u591a\u4e2a\u53ef\u80fd\u672a\u6765\u7ec4\u6210\u7684\u53e0\u52a0\u6001\u7684\u6743\u91cd\u7531\u7cfb\u7edf\u574d\u7f29\u65f6\u3001\u5176\u4e2d\u5404\u4e2a\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0c\u8fd9\u53f0\u673a\u5668\u5df2\u7ecf\u5c55\u793a\u4e86\u4e00\u79cd\u5e94\u7528\u573a\u666f\uff1a\u8bc4\u4f30\u6211\u4eec\u76ee\u524d\u5bf9\u7279\u5b9a\u9009\u9879\u7684\u504f\u597d\u4f1a\u5bf9\u672a\u6765\u4ea7\u751f\u600e\u6837\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002<\/p>\n
\u3000\u3000\u8be5\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9a\u683c\u91cc\u83f2\u65af\u5927\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u6cd5\u624e\u5fb7\u00b7\u52a0\u6cd5\u91cc\uff08Farzad Ghafari\uff09\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201c\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u5c06\u6bcf\u79cd\u504f\u597d\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u7ed3\u679c\u5408\u6210\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cf\u5b50\u53e0\u52a0\u6001\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u6709\u8bb8\u591a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u7b97\u6cd5\u4f1a\u89c2\u5bdf\u81ea\u8eab\u884c\u4e3a\u7684\u5fae\u5c0f\u53d8\u5316\u5bf9\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u672a\u6765\u7ed3\u679c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5e76\u501f\u6b64\u8fdb\u884c\u5b66\u4e60\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u6280\u672f\u6216\u80fd\u8ba9\u91cf\u5b50\u589e\u5f3a\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u66f4\u9ad8\u6548\u5730\u5b66\u4e60\u81ea\u8eab\u884c\u4e3a\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n
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